Investing in UK equities – good or bad idea in today’s market?
September 1st, 2010On a recent visit to London from New Zealand, one of my goals was to update the UK sharemarket by obtaining the latest views on the markets for a variety of analysts, economists, fund managers, and of course taxi drivers .
Most investors in New Zealand, as elsewhere, we call home bias “in its portfolio, which means they have a high proportion of their portfolio invested in local stock markets.
When it comes to New Zealand, the justification for having more invested abroad is strong. We have a bit fragile economy, which relies on agricultural exports. An outbreak of FMD would have a disastrous impact on the economy of New Zealand. Also a big earthquake.
We also recognize that today become the “Switzerland of the Pacific ended in 1970. Our money buys much less today in London that it did in the golden moments. We poorer compared with the rest of the world.
The best way to protect their savings from a further decline in long-term purchasing power is to invest money in foreign currencies and assets. This is the rationalization of global diversification.
There is a counterargument. First, New Zealand shares offer higher dividends than those available abroad, and are stimulated by imputation credits. In addition, the New Zealand dollar is very volatile and often rises sharply, undermining the profitability of global capital.
For example, the current market rebound that began in early March saw the emergence of the market in the United Kingdom 21 percent, but the New Zealand dollar rose 9 percent during the same period in NZ $ terms return is 12 percent.
Everyone I met was very concerned about the British economy. The impact of the banking crisis has been dramatic, financial management of government is considered evil, house prices are falling and economic growth is low.
However, everyone is comfortable remaining invested in equities in the United Kingdom, simply because they consider their market as a global market, instead of relying on the national economy of the United Kingdom.
The 100 companies on the market in the UK earn more than 60 percent of its revenue outside the United Kingdom and are the major multinationals such as GlaxoSmithKline, BP, Shell, HSBC, Vodafone and Diageo.
There is also a great debate on the current market rebound. The reversal of the sensation is incredible. Two months ago the fear was everywhere. Today, even the threat of a global pandemic is digitized. If the swine flu has appeared in February, when market sentiment was upset, she could have driven the market down 30 percent. It’s amazing what nine weeks and a little momentum can buy.
Most people with whom I remain concerned about the underlying fundamentals and see what garbage rebound rally “A”. Others, however, a minority, of course, see what the beginning of a major sharemarkets recovery that could last a decade. Their reasoning is that valuations are cheap, interest rates are practically zero, and since the last decade has been terrible for stocks over the next 10 years could be his time.
Everyone agrees on how investors should approach the current market. The last nine weeks has emphasized how it is foolish to try and time the market. With interest rates near zero, many investors are sitting on their money when asked to jump on the market now or wait for a pull back may or may not come.
Without exception, all the money managers I spoke to believe that any investment in shares are made in installments. The money will go to the shares should be divided into five servings or more. One party must be invested today, just in case it is the beginning of something great, and others should be held back and invested at regular intervals over the next year or two.
UK shares also provide good dividends. The average gross dividend yield of the 100 companies is about 5 percent. Although this performance is much less than the gross yield of 7.5% available to most companies in New Zealand, a key question to consider the gains in each market.
The payout ratio is simply a measure of how much profit a company pays in dividends and the amount is retained by the company to reinvest in growth.
Everywhere in the New Zealand market, the rate is 80 percent – the firms pay 80 percent of its profits in dividends, leaving only 20 percent of the profits available for reinvestment in the company.
In the UK the average payout ratio in the 100 largest companies only 45-50 percent. Some companies are considerably higher, as oil companies and banks, but most companies distribute only a small portion of their profits as dividends. The rest is used to reinvest in the business to drive future growth.
The biggest prize in New Zealand are understandable. Our economy is weak, the growth opportunities are limited and it makes sense to distribute a greater share of profits to shareholders. But as a result, the potential growth of stock prices lower.
The UK market offers a decent dividend yield, access to global multinationals, exposure to the pound sterling and, through based companies, a number of other currencies as well. The proportion of lower payments that this market also offers the potential for higher dividend growth in the long term.